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Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Mortal Ambition Regionals 中部場
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 14.1% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 37.9% | -7.8 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 11.7% | 11 | 5-5-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.8% | +0.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.4% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 53.4% | +2.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 61.5% | +7.4 |
| Wind Allies | 7.8% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 30.8% | -11.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 44.9% | -3.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.5% | -5.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.7% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 41.6% | -6.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.7% | +17.0 |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.2% | +24.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +2.2 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 57.8% | +7.5 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Wind Neos | 1.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.6% | -8.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.5% | +10.1 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.7% | -5.3 |
| Water Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.2% | -18.9 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 9 from this event
The 9 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 20 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Polar Depths | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |